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College Basketball Handicapping

When comparing basketball to football, the first thing we notice is that the ball is round and its behavior is a lot easier to control. Basketball playing surfaces are different from football fields. In basketball, the floor is smooth, compared to grass and artificial surfaces of various textures. Basketball is played indoors and this makes a difference in the player’s footing. There are fewer men on a basketball team and only 5 play at a time. In football, there are many more men on a team. A minimum of 30 men will be in a game and there are 22 men on the field at a time.

In basketball, there are fewer men involved in a basketball game, compared to the injury-prone football. For this reason, it is easier to assess values to injuries in relation to a game. The point spread can be adjusted with more accuracy than football except when a quarterback or star players are out. Basketball lines are posted the same day and the injury information is not always up-to-the-minute and may not be reflected in the line. Getting the information before the lines move, can be a big advantage for the handicapper.

Whether it is football or basketball, defense is still the name of the game. Coaches who stress defense are usually winners. An offense will vary from game to game, significantly in college basketball where shooting percentages fluctuate considerably. The best teams to follow unite a hard-nosed defense to a controlled offense.

In all sports, but especially basketball, the addition of one or two key players can provide a real lift. Be on the lookout for players who have this impact. We look for teams that made a great effort early and lost. When you make that big effort and win, you have momentum. When that same effort  토토추천 falls short, it frequently results in a tough-to-shake tail-spin. Adversity and defeat get to be habit-forming. In short, it is easier for winners to win and losers to lose. No matter how grating a loss may be because the breaks went against you, it is best to ignore it, because breaks will even out over a long period. Young teams must be watched during the transition period, while they learn to play together and blend their talents. Not until they know each other’s capabilities, is their collective personality formed. A veteran team won’t think twice about losing two in a row after a hot streak, but a young team might.

Analyze how and to whom a team loses. If it was playing out of its class, a return to its natural company often brings a contrasting result. Due to their style of play, some basketball teams have a tenacity to hang in against a classier opponent. They may be losing teams but discipline at both ends, keep them competitive. They can be spotted looking at their point spread trend. Their defensive consistency offers a clue. Evaluate whether a win was legitimate, because not knowing can throw you off. Accidental victories are part of the game.

There is a misconception that basketball teams emphasizing ball-control should be avoided when BIG favorites. These teams usually combine tough defense and overall discipline, so their average winning margin is often as great as a team that favors a wide open offense. Generally, there is value in going with favored ball-control teams, since the oddsmakers usually discount the margin by which they are favored. It can be documented that they are as consistent at beating the points, as their more prolific counterparts. Control teams occasionally get blown out when unable to dictate the tempo. Don’t be misled. Because they are disciplined, they are not inclined to lose big twice in a row.

College basketball should be viewed in two separate measurements… how a team performs AT HOME and AWAY. It is an overriding fact that only the best basketball teams win regularly on the road. The most important factors are length of trip, quality of officiating and hostility of the crowd, but some teams, which thrive on pressure, are equal to the hostile atmosphere of a foreign venue. Watch teams that have been on the road, where they may have encountered trouble. It is difficult to correct problems while traveling. The inconveniences impede smoothing out any weaknesses. The time is not adequate for a full-scale workout. Disciplined college teams are good road teams. They don’t foul a lot, don’t lose their poise and are good free-throw shooters. Watch clubs thin on bench strength while on the road. They are susceptible to foul trouble… so are ball-hawking teams, who may be in for different referee interpretations.

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